Reasons for Inherently Flawed Predictions in Mobile and Mobile Apps

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While you may hear about the risks that are posed when you make predictions for mobile, mobile app development and mobile app usage, you must have evidence to support this claim. So it’s a good idea to review all the evidence available or the reasoning that can be presented in order to come to a conclusion that you can stand by.

Does Innovation in Technology Influence How You Predict Future Outcomes?

It sure does. When you know that innovations are continuously taking place, you will also know that the rules also keep on changing. Older rules are automatically challenges while newer ones replace them. Experienced companies have stood witness to the kinds of changes that take place in the mobile industry, and they would be among the best ones to follow in terms of what’s happening in the industry without bothering too much with what’s predicted.

There is comfort in predicting what will happen as a result of certain development, but there is no guarantee when making predictions with mobile technology innovations. It’s OK if you get things right, but if you don’t things can go horribly wrong.

Predictions that Worked and Others that Didn’t

It’s worth taking a brief look at predictions turned out right and others that didn’t.

In 2009, it was predicted that the Windows Phone would be no.2 in the mobile industry by 2012. However, that’s not what happened. Instead it was the iPhone and Android that swallowed up market share.

One more prediction included Apple developers possibly migrating to the Android platform. That didn’t happen either.

It was also predicted that HTML5 would solve issues with native vs. web apps. However, that hasn’t happened either.

As opposed to some predictions that didn’t turn out as expected, there are those that did. These include: improvements introduced to augmented reality apps, greater adoption of tablets and a larger playing field for organizations thanks to mobile apps through which they can boost their business.

The Digital/Social Media Snowball Effect and Why Predictions are Not Worth the Attention

We are all well aware that social media along with the adoption of smart devices are now intertwined. With more people connecting via social networks, news of developments in technology spreads rapidly which generates customer expectations and also boosts fiercer competition with large organizations getting involved. With everyone concerned on the production front trying to release new, quicker, better, smarter and more superior products on the market, competition increases, producing better mobile tech. This results in quicker production of new mobile tech and it all seems to come up all of a sudden and pretty much take you by surprise.

You can easily see that at any point in time, the market is open to rotating 180 degrees due to an upstart innovation. An example of this is the development of bendable smartphones by Samsung, which you can literally sit on and throw around because they won’t break. A question to ask here is; is it possible that the market will see an upstart innovator build a tablet of this kind or possibly build a smart phone that can fold into a watch? The possibilities are endless, but there is no of accurately saying whether or not these kinds of developments will take place.

While projected numbers may be considered of less significance, it is important to state that the mobile market is becoming more and more dynamic, which means that it’s ludicrous to make predictions for the coming years. Unlike with a game like chess where you can thing 6 moves ahead, you simply can’t employ that sort of approach. This because by the time you reach your first or second move, the dynamics in the mobile market shift so drastically that the plan you had for your whole 6 moves become futile.

To verbally illustrate mobile growth and expected innovations, you can ask some simple questions. If you ask; ‘Will the mobile market grow?’ Your answer will be ‘Yes’. However, if you ask; ‘Will smart device adoption increase?’ You can’t really make a safe statement on that. This is because there are a number of factors that come into play such as cost variation, quality, Wi-Fi performance, speeds, higher customer visibility, etc. All these factors will determine how things roll out, and it’s difficult to put a finger on each of these factors.

Finally, there is need to reiterate that making predictions is risky. You might get an idea of what lies ahead with mobile tech advancement and mobile apps, but you can never be entirely sure.

This article is written by Sani. He is Managing Director of VeztekUSA a well known Web and Mobile App Development Company based in Los Angeles, California. He has extensive experience in building and leading innovative software development teams. He always stay up to date with latest trends in Mobile App Development and loves contributing on different technology Blog. Follow him on Twitter.