Apple’s foray into the foldable smartphone market is poised to instigate a seismic shift within this nascent segment.
The imminent launch of the iPhone Duo, scheduled for October 23, is anticipated to result in sales of approximately 6 million units by the close of 2026.
This would enable Apple to secure about a quarter of the global foldable market, establishing it as the second most dominant player behind Samsung Electronics, as highlighted by Counterpoint Research.
This forecast, released on September 30, illustrates the potential of Apple’s brand influence and ecosystem allegiance to revitalize a sector that has recently experienced a downturn.
While the projection of 6 million units may appear modest in light of Apple’s broader iPhone sales — the company reported shipping 247.4 million iPhones in 2025 — its effect on the foldable category would be disproportionately significant.
Counterpoint estimates that Apple could achieve a 25% market share shortly after the launch, trailing Samsung’s 38% but surpassing Huawei’s 22%.
The iPhone Duo’s entry point in the United States is priced at $1,999 for the 256GB model, with preorders commencing on October 16 and a global rollout across over 70 countries one week later.
In South Korea, the pricing starts at 3.29 million won (approximately $2,400) and escalates to 5.09 million won (around $3,700) for the 2TB variant.
For Japanese consumers, initial pricing stands at 364,800 yen for the 256GB model, rising to 574,800 yen for the 2TB configuration, while in Taiwan, prices start at NT$74,900.
The debut of the iPhone Duo is predicted to invigorate the entire foldable market. IDC has forecast a 13% increase in global foldable smartphone shipments, anticipating a total of 22.9 million units by 2026, largely attributable to Apple’s entry.
The research institute noted that, in the absence of the iPhone Duo, the market would likely have seen a contraction. This transformation signifies a shift away from a segment “on the verge of declining” towards one of the fastest-growing areas in the industry.
Tarun Pathak, Director at Counterpoint Research, characterized Apple’s pricing maneuver as “a rather audacious decision,” particularly given that it represents the highest price point in its category, exceeding Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 by approximately $100.
Samsung’s Resilience
Samsung is steadfast in its competitive stance. The recent launch of the Galaxy Z8 series in August has generated substantial demand across Asian markets.
In South Korea alone, preorders reached a staggering 1.44 million units, a record for any Galaxy smartphone.
The company has reportedly upped its orders for an additional 1 million units from suppliers, revising its annual production objective to roughly 3.8 million units.
Global preorder estimates for the Galaxy Z8 series are pegged between 4.7 million and 5.2 million units, as indicated by tipster Ice Universe on September 6.
The Galaxy Z Fold8, featuring the same 4:3 aspect ratio as the iPhone Duo, represented 59% of these preorders, amounting to approximately 2.89 million units. Samsung aims to sell around 5 million Galaxy Z8 units within the year.
Both devices will directly compete in terms of form factor and price. The Galaxy Z Fold8 starts at 2.14 million won (approximately $1,600) in Korea, contrasting sharply with the iPhone Duo’s entry point of 3.29 million won (approximately $2,400), creating a significant price differential that may favor Samsung among cost-conscious consumers.
Ivan Lam, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, emphasized that the actual sales performance of the iPhone Duo hinges on Apple’s ability to efficiently scale production.
“The eventual sales volume of the iPhone Duo is contingent upon how expeditiously Apple can enhance initial production capacity,” he stated.
“Overcoming supply bottlenecks and addressing resistance to the high launch price will be pivotal for early market success.”
Japan: Samsung’s Stronghold
In Japan, Samsung’s dominance in the foldable market is even more pronounced than on a global scale.
The company commanded 67.7% of Japan’s foldable shipments during the fiscal year ending in March 2026, with Motorola trailing at 18.9%, followed by Google at 6.9% and ZTE at 6.6%, according to MM Research Institute.
While foldables accounted for merely 334,000 of the 31.3 million smartphones shipped in the country — a paltry 1.1% — Samsung’s global foldable share was recorded at 41.3% during that same period.
MM Research Institute also projects that Apple’s entrance will catalyze a surge in Japan’s foldable market, predicting it will more than double to 760,000 units by fiscal 2026, equivalent to 2.6% of all smartphone shipments. The category is expected to surpass 1 million units the following year.
Apple’s Momentum in China
Apple’s overarching premium strategy is reaping benefits in China, particularly following the release of the iPhone 18 Pro series on September 18, which did not coincide with a standard-model launch.
Initial sales figures indicate that Pro model sales outpaced those of the iPhone 17 Pro by 12% in the first three days, as per tracking data for the week of September 14-20.
During that week, Apple secured a 33% share of China’s smartphone market — a notably robust performance in a landscape typically dominated by Huawei, Oppo, vivo, and Xiaomi.
This achievement is even more remarkable considering that overall smartphone sales in China plummeted by 17% year over year amid tepid consumer demand and surging memory costs.
Memory pricing has emerged as a critical challenge across the industry. Contract prices for conventional DRAM experienced an approximate 60% increase quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2026, as semiconductor manufacturers redirected resources toward AI data centers.
TrendForce anticipates an additional price surge of 13% to 18% in the third quarter. Several flagship Chinese smartphones have observed price escalations exceeding $200, diminishing the traditional price gap between Apple offerings and rivals.
Lam observed that the delay in the standard iPhone 18 until spring 2027 has likely nudged some consumers towards the more expensive Pro models.
Furthermore, Apple’s scale and long-standing component agreements have enabled the company to better withstand cost pressures compared to smaller competitors—an effect that was evident in early 2026 when iPhone sales in China surged by 23% during the first nine weeks of the year, while the broader market contracted by 4%.
Samsung Display’s Ascendancy
Beyond device-level rivalries, Samsung Display is leveraging Apple’s foldable aspirations to its advantage.
The display division provided 69.9 million panels to Apple in the first half of 2026, comprising 58.8% of Apple’s total smartphone display procurement, according to Omdia.
This figure has climbed from 48.9% in the first half of 2024 and 53% the subsequent year, nearing 60% now.
Samsung Display’s supply growth rate of 48.1% over this two-year span has significantly outpaced Apple’s overall panel procurement increase of 23.3%.
In contrast, LG Display’s share remained relatively stable at 24.5%, while Chinese manufacturer BOE saw its segment decrease from 20.4% to 16.7%.
The Korean panel manufacturer is also the primary supplier of the foldable OLED display used in the iPhone Duo.
Omdia anticipates that foldable products will constitute 29.7% of Samsung Display’s smartphone OLED revenue in the third quarter, a dramatic rise from just 3% in the first quarter and 13% in the second.
The Expanding Competitive Landscape
The competition in the premium foldable segment transcends just Apple and Samsung. Motorola is gearing up to launch the Razr Flex in December, targeting the mid-range market with a price point below $1,500.
This device boasts a passport-style design with a 5-inch cover display, a 7-inch inner screen, dual 50MP rear cameras, and a formidable 5,000mAh battery.
Motorola aims to undercut the Galaxy Z Fold8 by approximately $400, acknowledging some compromises in processing capability and thickness.
Samsung is also progressing with next-generation models. The anticipated Galaxy Z Fold9 may unveil a re-imagined OLED panel that reduces crease visibility, potentially incorporates an IP68 dust and water resistance rating, and brings back S Pen compatibility.
A successor to the Galaxy Z TriFold is reportedly being developed with enhanced durability—rated for over 200,000 folding cycles and poised for a broader global launch.
As we approach the fourth quarter, the immediate battlefield becomes increasingly relevant. Apple will have roughly two months of sales in 2026, and the feasibility of meeting the 6 million-unit projection will be dictated by its production capacity.
Meanwhile, Samsung, benefiting from a full year of Galaxy Z8 availability and a lower introductory price, enters the holiday season with inherent advantages.
The shared 4:3 aspect ratio between the two devices may facilitate consumer comparisons, making price, ecosystem allegiance, and supply chain realities pivotal factors.
Note: The Galaxy Z Fold8’s US price is approximately $100 below the iPhone Duo’s. Japanese and Taiwanese prices include tax; Korean pricing reflects official launch prices.
The trajectory of the foldable category into 2027 will heavily rely on Apple’s efforts to diversify its lineup and whether Samsung can retain its unique selling propositions.
Apple’s entrance has already legitimized the foldable form factor for mainstream audiences, while Samsung’s display business remains crucial for sustaining competitive integrity across both factions, rendering the competitive landscape more intricate than traditional marketing narratives imply.
Source link: Finance.biggo.com.
