Xi Jinping’s Visit to Maryland: A Diplomatic Encounter
On Wednesday, when Xi Jinping, the paramount leader of China, arrives in Maryland, he may very well find himself embraced—perhaps even warmly—by President Donald Trump, who has extended more cordiality toward China than any of his recent predecessors.
This week marks the second in-person dialogue between Xi and Trump for 2023, following their initial summit in Beijing last May.
During that earlier encounter, discussions centered around fostering a “strategic stability” between these two economic titans. However, tangible results remained elusive, with persistent disagreements over trade, export controls, and geopolitical matters.
Despite the burgeoning camaraderie observed in May, expectations for this meeting are decidedly muted.
The anticipation for significant advancements is low, as noted by Bonnie Glaser, managing director at the German Marshall Fund, who remarked, “Nobody is using the term ‘deliverables’ any longer.”
One conceivable area of agreement between Trump and Xi concerns artificial intelligence (AI) safety. Notable tech leaders—such as Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Sundar Pichai of Alphabet, Sam Altman of OpenAI, Tim Cook of Apple, and Elon Musk of Tesla—are expected to grace a state dinner at the White House on Thursday evening.
‘Whoever Wins AI, Wins’
In recent weeks, concerns have escalated regarding the rapid advancement of AI technology in the U.S., with an emphasis on maintaining its competitive edge over China.
Trump has been firmly against calls to decelerate AI development, asserting, “We’re leading China in AI. And frankly, I want to keep it that way, because whoever wins AI, wins.”
On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent concluded discussions with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, during which he advocated for establishing an AI safety mechanism between Washington and Beijing; however, this initiative is not anticipated to evolve into a significant safety pact.
In a reflection of the ongoing dialogue, Tuesday’s edition of the People’s Daily, the official organ of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), urged a collaborative approach, advocating for the U.S. and China to “make AI a new frontier for cooperation” and effectively utilize intergovernmental mechanisms for dialogue.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres echoed this sentiment, proposing a communicative framework akin to the Cold War dialogue between the U.S. and Soviet Union, remarking that “governments with the greatest AI capabilities have the greatest responsibilities to humanity.”
Despite this openness on the part of China, the nation disputes U.S. perspectives regarding the significant threats posed by its AI enhancements.
A response from China’s foreign ministry condemned alarmist narratives, stating that fearmongering, confrontation, and vicious competition will only disrupt the process of global AI governance.
China has proactively instituted regulations mandating the labeling of AI-generated content and imposed restrictions on children’s engagement with AI companions, aligning with the CCP’s stringent control over information dissemination.
Beijing harbors apprehensions regarding U.S. efforts to curtail its technological ascendance, noting that Washington has consistently obstructed China’s access to advanced semiconductors integral for AI development. Moreover, recent embargoes targeted the sale of Chinese humanoid robots.
Amanda Hsiao, China director at the Eurasia Group, articulated that China does not necessarily perceive the threat in alignment with U.S. interpretations.
There is a significant degree of distrust obstructing cooperative endeavors. Chinese authorities often regard U.S. safety standards or corporate pacing recommendations as tactics aimed at stifling their progress.
Trade Tensions Endure
Trade remains a salient topic of discussion. Last year, the U.S. and China reached a temporary ceasefire in their trade war during a summit in South Korea, yet this lull—characterized by a pause in tariffs and an agreement for China to alleviate restrictions on rare earth exports—will come to an end in November.
China is advocating for a more enduring commitment to eliminate tariffs threatening its export-driven economy. Reports indicate, however, that the U.S. is hesitant to engage in negotiations that could weaken its bargaining influence.
Glaser remarked, “The U.S. views this as leverage against China, ensuring the supply of rare earths and magnets crucial for American businesses.”
Interestingly, China may perceive little incentive to negotiate; despite the trade tensions, its exports have soared, anticipating a $1 trillion trade surplus for the second consecutive year.
‘This is Not a G2’
Since the May summit, the Taiwan issue has emerged as a pivotal aspect of the bilateral dynamic. Following the Beijing talks, Xi secured a notable concession from Trump, as the latter agreed to pause a substantial $14 billion arms sales package to Taiwan—an issue typically excluded from U.S.-China negotiations, given the island’s claimed status by China.
Trump has since characterized potential arms sales as a “valuable bargaining chip,” and the U.S. is reportedly contemplating delaying further sales until after the APEC and G20 summits, where both leaders are expected to reconvene.
In its Tuesday edition, the People’s Daily posited that a stable Sino-U.S. relationship would foster “greater peace, prosperity, and progress globally.”
However, Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasizes that “this is not a G2,” highlighting a lack of partnership in the stewardship of the global order.
“They are navigating the bilateral relationship, yet they are not collaboratively working as co-stewards of the international framework,” Kennedy articulated in a recent commentary.
As China stands as Iran’s preeminent oil buyer and trading ally, its influence behind-the-scenes in pressuring Tehran towards negotiations has been notable, especially following U.S. strikes against the nation last February.
Notably, China has curtailed oil imports by nearly 25% in the first half of the conflict, alleviating global inflationary pressures.
Da Wei, an international relations scholar at Tsinghua University, noted that this demonstrated “a more self-assured China” that refrained from capitalizing on U.S. challenges during the conflict.
However, Beijing has yet to make substantial strides in mediating the Middle Eastern turmoil, which it views as largely a byproduct of U.S. policy failures.
Subsequently, Bessent introduced an “economic D-Day” against Iran and its affiliates, asserting to have had “constructive private discussions” with Chinese officials regarding the curtailment of its economic ties with Tehran.
In terms of the Ukraine crisis, China has maintained unwavering support for Russia since the latter’s comprehensive invasion in 2022.
Commenting on the geopolitical frictions, Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, posited: “The schism between the world’s incumbent power and its principal challenger will be more pronounced in Washington compared to Beijing’s atmosphere in May, as the former grapples with renewed turmoil in the Middle East, while the latter is posturing as a stabilizing counterweight in favor of a multipolar global framework.”
High Expectations, Low Deliverables
The absence of advancement on entrenched geopolitical disputes, coupled with China’s prioritization of sustained “strategic stability,” leads many to anticipate a lackluster outcome from this summit.
Hsiao expressed, “Expect another summit characterized by positive ambiance yet limited substantive achievements.”
Amidst these proceedings, Democrats in Washington are urging Trump to raise critical issues concerning China’s treatment of political dissidents, while simultaneously cautioning against excessive concessions to Xi.
Senator Tammy Duckworth articulated this apprehension at the Center for American Progress think tank, asserting, He has not historically excelled in securing equitable agreements with the PRC.
The outcomes from the last summit did not materialize as promised, with commitments for 200 Boeing aircraft and $17 billion in agricultural products remaining unfulfilled.
Furthermore, Duckworth remarked that he undermined our established stance on Taiwan through his discussions regarding arms sales.
I am concerned that this upcoming meeting could echo past experiences where President Trump excessively caters to President Xi, distracted from the broader picture in the Indo-Pacific at the expense of our regional allies.
Source link: Theguardian.com.
