Key Highlights
- The operating profit forecast for the first quarter reaches 57.2 trillion won ($37.8 billion), showcasing an astounding increase of over 700% compared to the previous year.
- Quarterly revenue is anticipated to surge by approximately 70%, totaling around 133 trillion won for the January–March period.
- A burgeoning demand for artificial intelligence chips has led to supply constraints in the memory sector, catalyzing substantial price escalations.
- The company is narrowing its competitive edge against SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory market, having commenced HBM4 unit deliveries to Nvidia in February.
- Geopolitical instability in the Middle East poses potential threats, including possible disruptions to essential manufacturing materials like helium and increased energy costs.
Samsung’s preliminary operating profit estimation for the first quarter of 2026 stands at 57.2 trillion won, marking a staggering increase of over 700% from the same period last year.
This figure significantly exceeds analyst predictions, which estimated between 40 and 42 trillion won, as per LSEG SmartEstimate data.
If these projections are validated, this would represent nearly threefold the company’s previous quarterly profit high of 20 trillion won recorded in the last quarter. Additionally, it surpasses Samsung’s entire annual operating profit for 2025.
Revenue projections are anticipated to reach a total of 133 trillion won, reflecting a noteworthy 68% year-over-year growth. The conclusive confirmation of these preliminary figures is scheduled for April 30 with the release of the company’s comprehensive earnings report.
This remarkable performance is primarily attributed to Samsung’s memory semiconductor segment. The soaring demand for AI infrastructure has induced widespread shortages across the memory chip market, resulting in significant price inflation. Research firm TrendForce predicts that contract DRAM pricing will rise by over 50% in the current quarter.
According to estimations from a Meritz Securities analyst, Samsung’s memory segment alone is projected to generate around 54 trillion won in operating profit during this quarter, while its logic chip sector records losses nearing 1.6 trillion won.
The mobile device division contributes approximately 4 trillion won in profit, reflecting a modest year-over-year decline.
Competitive Position Improves in High-Bandwidth Memory Segment
A year ago, Samsung’s CEO candidly acknowledged the company’s unsatisfactory financial outcomes and its technological disadvantage against SK Hynix in supplying high-bandwidth memory solutions to Nvidia. Considerable progress has since been observed in rectifying this competitive gap.
In February, Samsung initiated the shipment of its cutting-edge HBM4 chip technology to Nvidia. Nevertheless, Heungkuk Securities analysis indicates that high-bandwidth memory products constituted less than 10% of Samsung’s total DRAM chip revenue during the first quarter.
The chief source of profitability has been derived from conventional DRAM products, benefiting from heightened demand triggered by AI inference applications, which have exacerbated shortages in standard memory products.
Heungkuk Securities analysts foresee Samsung’s overall operating profit could potentially achieve an unprecedented 75 trillion won in the second quarter, buoyed by anticipated DRAM price increases exceeding 30%.
Currency fluctuations have also favored the company, as the South Korean won is trading near its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in roughly 17 years. This currency dynamic has enhanced the value of repatriated foreign earnings.
Geopolitical Tensions Create Industry Uncertainty
The intensifying conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has introduced new uncertainties for semiconductor manufacturers.
Possible disruptions to the supply of critical semiconductor production materials—particularly helium—could seriously impact manufacturing capabilities at firms such as Samsung and SK Hynix.
Rising energy prices, attributed to regional instability, have raised concerns over whether demand for AI data centers might diminish in the latter half of the year.
Recent softening in spot market DRAM pricing has been noted, as TrendForce observes that customer demand struggles to align with elevated pricing.
The introduction of Google’s TurboQuant, a memory-optimization technology, has further exerted downward pressure, resulting in a market correction that has clipped Samsung’s stock valuation by approximately 9% since hostilities escalated on February 28.
Despite this recent downturn, Samsung’s shares have surged over 60% in 2026, building on an extraordinary 125% increase recorded in 2025.
In Tuesday’s trading session, competitor SK Hynix shares advanced by 3.4%.
Source link: Parameter.io.
