As we venture into 2026, have you embraced any resolutions for the New Year? Moreover, what sources of news do you rely upon? Who influences your understanding of current events?
In the past few weeks, I have disseminated information regarding various fraudulent activities affecting Social Security, SNAP funding, and Medicare.
Additionally, I have highlighted the ongoing Somali and Muslim issues in Minnesota, Ohio, and Maine. Significantly, mainstream media has scarcely addressed these matters. Does this silence imply their invalidity? What beliefs do you hold?
It seems that 2026 might introduce as many upheavals to grain markets as we encountered in 2025. Recent reports indicate that the U.S. economy expanded by 4.3 percent, surpassing forecasts.
Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, remarked, “It appears that my profession has once again failed to anticipate the economic ramifications of Trump’s policies.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick heralded this growth as remarkable, contrasting it with the United Kingdom’s meager 0.1 percent increase, the European Union’s 0.4 percent rise, and Japan’s decline of 0.6 percent during the same period.
Have you observed this in the news you consume? Agriculture news mirrors this landscape. In my assessment, Pro Farmer exhibits a liberal bias. Recently, they awarded American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland their Pro Farmer 2025 Ag Person of the Year accolade.
Remember, Ragland attributes low soybean prices to tariffs, arguing for renewed exports to China. If this ideology resonates with you, consider exploring alternative news venues.
Over recent years, the United States has forfeited access to the Chinese market. Rapid advancements in South America, coupled with Chinese investments enhancing infrastructure, have propelled them ahead in soybean cultivation.
Nonetheless, favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina prompted AGRural to revise its yield expectations upward, from 178.5 million metric tonnes to 180.4 million tonnes. Currently, our domestic markets remain subdued.
As of December 30, March corn concluded at $4.42, dipping five cents for the week. The May contract settled at $4.50, while new crop December futures reached $4.62. January beans ended at $10.53, trading sideways, with March at $10.67, and new crop November beans closing at $10.79.
Despite diminished wheat forecasts from Russia and Ukraine, July wheat settled at a modest $5.37. February crude oil finished at $58.44, also demonstrating sideways trading.
I maintain a cautiously optimistic view on corn. Karen Braun of Reuters reported a 71 percent increase in corn export inspections as of December 18 from the previous year, with notable shipment increases across most destinations.
Additionally, Corey Lavinsky at S&P Global Energy noted that ethanol production achieved a record high for the week.
In soybean news, Braun highlighted the sale of 100,000 metric tonnes to Egypt for the 2025-26 period. It is critical to recognize that as new trade agreements materialize, we will witness an influx of smaller buyers compensating for the singular dominance of China.
Moreover, grain bins constitute just one avenue for marketing. Market Minute LLC revealed that in 11 of the last 15 years, corn futures peaked from now through February. Should I reiterate that? Are you prepared to establish some early pricing?
Last week, I urged a reevaluation of crop budgets. Reports indicate that prices for chemicals and fertilizers are set to rise. Companies are likely to withhold final pricing until they ascertain farmers’ expenditure capabilities. It is essential to comprehend this landscape fully.
Agricultural news is not unlike other media establishments; it often has sponsors. Podcasters seek sponsorships, and influencers are vying for similar support. Exercise caution—many are attempting to sell a product. The majority of analysts I follow anticipate a rather stringent year in 2026, with narrow margins.
Regrettably, several growers remain uninformed regarding the fundamentals of supply and demand. When supply surges or demand wanes, ending stocks rise, leading to decreased prices.
I was encouraged to read about a grower who maintains a distinct budget for each of his farms. Given the variances in soil types, rainfall, and wildlife damage, he can assess each farm individually. Notably, he has relinquished ownership of the unprofitable farms. Imagine that!
Source link: Americanfarm.com.
