Online Grocery Sales Surge: Key Insights from FMI and NielsenIQ Report
The burgeoning realm of online grocery sales has been a significant contributor to the overall retail landscape, accounting for over 70% of total grocery sales growth in 2025, as detailed in a comprehensive report by FMI—The Food Industry Association—alongside research firm NielsenIQ.
This analysis forecasts that online grocery sales in the United States will expand at an impressive annual rate of 11.6% through 2028, ascending to an astounding $452 billion.
At present, online purchases constitute roughly 20% of total grocery expenditures; however, this figure is projected to rise to 25.5% by 2028, according to the report titled Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026.
Last year, online sales experienced a robust increase of nearly 19%, culminating in an estimated total of $325 billion. This year, grocery-related sales via digital channels are anticipated to reach $363 billion, potentially rising to approximately $407 billion by 2027.
“Ecommerce is poised for extensive growth,” noted Jack O’Leary, Director of Ecommerce Strategic Insights for NIQ. He emphasized that the success of retailers hinges on their ability to seamlessly integrate digital and physical experiences into a unified shopping journey.
Consumer Behavior and Trends
The report elucidated that an overwhelming 94% of consumers who procured grocery items last year engaged in both online and in-store shopping, making at least one purchase through each medium.
“Omnichannel shopping is now the norm for most households,” asserted Steve Markenson, Vice President of Research and Insights at FMI.
However, distinct variances were identified in consumer shopping patterns across the two channels. Ecommerce transactions typically involve smaller baskets comprised of one to three items.
Conversely, substantial stock-up purchases—encompassing 12 or more items—account for merely 16% of the total ecommerce spending.
Online expenditures predominantly favor shelf-stable, non-food items, including health and beauty, baby care, pet care, and household goods.
Nevertheless, food items—which represent only 11.5% of online grocery dollar sales—witnessed the most rapid growth in 2025, soaring by 18.8%. Notably, beverages led the food category, trailed by meat, coffee, and prepared foods.
Additional Key Findings
- Accelerated Delivery Rates: Retailers are enhancing their delivery efficiencies, with average delivery times from warehouse or store to consumer now reduced to approximately two days, down from four days in 2021.
- High-Income Growth: Online sales surged most dramatically among high-income households, with spending up about 29% for individuals earning $150,000 or more, compared to a modest 10% for those with incomes under $25,000.
- Younger Demographics and Social Media: Younger consumers have increasingly turned to social media for shopping.
For instance, grocery-related sales on TikTok Shop in the U.S. surged by over 90% last year, broadening beyond health and beauty to encompass pet, household care, and beverages. - Impact of Artificial Intelligence: A notable one-third of shoppers (33%) reported utilizing generative AI for product research, while 22% employed it to summarize reviews.
Although only 11% of consumers have utilized AI for direct purchasing, this figure is expected to rise, particularly for low-complexity and low-consideration items.
These findings illuminate the transformative dynamics currently shaping the grocery shopping landscape, with advances in technology and consumer preferences steering the future of the sector.
Source link: Supermarketnews.com.
