According to Oppenheimer, Meta’s Ray-Ban Display does not presently pose a substantial threat to Apple’s hardware dominance.
Meanwhile, UBS’s surveillance indicates that the initial demand for the iPhone 17 is beginning to normalize, with reduced wait times observed in the launch week.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley’s bullish projections estimate approximately 270 million iPhone units shipped by 2026.
Quick Take
- What changed — Various analyst assessments released today note: Oppenheimer claims that the new Ray-Ban Display glasses from Meta are not an imminent threat to Apple’s hardware stronghold.
UBS Evidence Lab reports that demand for the iPhone 17 has surpassed its initial peak, evidenced by shorter wait times, and Morgan Stanley’s bullish scenario forecasts ~270 million iPhone shipments by 2026. - Why it matters — In the immediate future, Apple’s primary hardware offerings appear to be shielded from the rising interest in smart glasses; momentum for the iPhone 17 is stabilizing post-launch, while long-term projections remain enthusiastic, albeit heavily reliant on certain assumptions.
Oppenheimer: Smart Glasses Will Not Undermine Apple’s Hardware Dominance—For Now
After evaluating a demonstration of the Ray-Ban Display in New York City, Martin Yang from Oppenheimer described the experience as innovative yet not ready for everyday usage, citing concerns about eye strain and visual clarity issues.
His perspective: It remains premature to categorically designate the Ray-Ban Display as an everyday device akin to the Apple Watch, much less as a competitor to smartphones. This leaves Apple’s hardware ecosystem largely secure for the next two to three years while it refines its own smart glasses.
Context: The Ray-Ban Display incorporates a readable in-frame display alongside a Meta Neural Band EMG control interface that facilitates gesture navigation.
Apple Hardware Roadmap (Reports): Vision Pro High-End Pause; Glasses Slated for 2026
Separately, recent reports suggest that Apple has suspended development of a high-end Vision Pro model (code-named N100) and is prioritizing AI-integrated smart glasses for a 2026 launch.
These glasses will feature cameras, microphones, speakers, and advanced Siri capabilities—without an in-lens augmented reality display. (Consider this a report/rumor until official confirmation from Apple.)
UBS’ 30-Market Tracker Indicates Softening Post-Launch Demand
- Base iPhone 17: Peak demand “is now behind us.”
- iPhone 17 Air: Reduced wait times across major markets suggest subdued interest in the thinner model with modest specifications.
- iPhone 17 Pro: Wait times are declining, with China reporting approximately 13 days (down from 14 last year and 20 days a week prior).
Morgan Stanley (bull case): 270 million iPhones projected in 2026
In its optimistic forecast, this projection is bolstered by six anticipated 2026 launches (including iPhone 17e, base iPhone 18, and Air/Pro/Pro Max models, plus a potential foldable) and an uplift due to AI technology.
What We Do Not Know
- The specific timeline, features, and market strategy for Apple’s smart glasses.
- The long-term usability of the Ray-Ban Display outside of controlled demonstrations.
- The real-world sales performance of the iPhone 17 compared to wait-time indicators.
- Whether the 270 million shipment estimate factored in supply constraints, pricing strategies, or regional influences that are expected to persist.
What’s Next?
- Anticipate Apple’s forthcoming guidance for the holiday quarter and any insights regarding wearables.
- Observe iPhone 17 lead times through mid-October to gauge demand normalization.
- Keep an eye on developer and test builds for indications of a glasses-related framework or upgrades to Siri.
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