The global smartphone sector is anticipated to expand by 1 percent in 2025, as unveiled in the most recent analysis from IDC. This revised forecast surfaces amid a persistently challenging economic landscape, characterized by inflationary strains and generally tepid consumer demand.
The improvement, albeit modest, reflects a slight uptick from IDC’s prior estimation of 0.6 percent growth, indicating that the smartphone industry retains some capacity for recovery.
Forecast
IDC’s recalibrated projections indicate that worldwide shipments are expected to escalate to 1.24 billion units in 2025. This slight enhancement in expectations is primarily attributed to the robust performance of Apple’s iOS, projected to experience a growth of 3.9 percent during the same timeframe. Despite overarching market challenges, the iOS platform is expected to drive substantial momentum.
The report additionally emphasizes a gradual resurgence, forecasting that this positive trend will persist into 2026, fueled by healthy replacement demand. While the long-term Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029 is estimated at 1.5 percent, IDC posits that ongoing hardware enhancements and stable pricing strategies are motivating consumers to replace older devices.
Regions
A regional analysis reveals a multifaceted outlook. The U.S. smartphone market is poised for a 3.6 percent growth in 2025, while the Middle East and Africa are projected to take the lead with an impressive 6.5 percent increase. In contrast, the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) is expected to witness a modest rise of 0.8 percent.
China presents a contrasting narrative; IDC has notably downgraded its initial projection of 3 percent year-over-year growth to a decline of 1 percent. This downturn is chiefly attributed to the cessation of governmental subsidies alongside continuing economic uncertainties.
Here’s a concise overview of the regional growth forecast for 2025:
| Region | Projected Growth (%) |
|---|---|
| United States | 3.6 |
| Middle East & Africa | 6.5 |
| Asia Pacific (ex. China) | 0.8 |
| China | -1.0 |
Revenue
Although shipment volumes are projected to rise merely by 1 percent, market values are set to escalate at a considerably faster rate. Average Selling Prices (ASP) are anticipated to soar by 5 percent in 2025, propelling overall market revenue upward by 6 percent year-on-year.
This growth trajectory is primarily due to smartphone manufacturers shifting focus from sheer volume to enhanced value. Rather than pursuing extensive sales numbers, they are channeling investments into sleeker designs, foldable technologies, superior cameras, and generative AI capabilities.
This focus, recognized as premiumisation, is being bolstered by more vigorous marketing initiatives and alluring financing options, notably zero-interest EMIs.
GenAI
Generative AI is emerging as a pivotal focal point for smartphone developers. IDC forecasts that smartphones imbued with GenAI capabilities will account for approximately 30 percent of the market by 2025, translating to over 370 million units worldwide. These AI-enhanced functionalities are anticipated to extend beyond flagship models and penetrate mid-range offerings in the ensuing years.
By 2029, IDC envisions that over 70 percent of smartphones shipped will integrate on-device generative AI, making such technology as ubiquitous as dual-camera systems or OLED displays.
Foldables
Foldable smartphones are also demonstrating measured advancement. IDC projects a growth rate of 6 percent year-on-year for this segment in 2025, an increase from 4 percent in 2024. This upward trend is expected to persist, with a projected 6 percent growth in 2026 and a significant surge to 11 percent in 2027.
Innovative releases from major players such as Samsung, Google, Honor, Motorola, and Huawei are pushing the boundaries of both design and functionality. Nevertheless, despite these advancements, foldables are likely to remain a niche segment, accounting for less than 3 percent of global smartphone shipments by 2029.
In an increasingly challenging landscape, global smartphone manufacturers are recalibrating their strategies, prioritizing value enhancement over simple unit sales. With the growth of iOS setting the pace, the expansion of generative AI capabilities, and the gradual integration of foldables into mainstream markets, the industry appears poised to navigate economic headwinds and uncover new opportunities.
FAQs
How much will smartphone shipments grow in 2025?
IDC forecasts a 1% growth in global smartphone shipments.
Which platform will lead the 2025 growth?
iOS is projected to grow by 3.9%, leading the overall increase.
Is China’s smartphone market growing?
No, it’s expected to shrink by 1% in 2025.
Will GenAI be common in smartphones?
Yes, 30% of smartphones will have GenAI in 2025.
Are foldables becoming mainstream?
They’re growing, but will stay under 3% market share by 2029.
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