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Mexico’s e-commerce sector reached a milestone in 2024, accounting for 6.9% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The sector’s contribution now rivals that of construction and exceeds the share generated by financial services.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and projections from the Mexican Association of Online Sales (AMVO), online transactions are expected to represent 17.7% of total retail sales by 2026 — a level approaching current penetration rates in the United States.
In nominal terms, the Gross Value Added of e-commerce (Vabcoel) reached MX$2.3 trillion (US$135.3 billion) in 2024 at current prices. The figure includes goods and services transacted through digital marketplaces, proprietary websites, and social media platforms.
Although the sector maintained an expansionary trajectory, real growth moderated to 7.1% in 2024 from 8.5% the previous year. Analysts attribute the slowdown to broader macroeconomic normalization following post-pandemic acceleration rather than to weakening structural demand.
Latin America as a Growth Engine
Latin America is positioning itself as one of the fastest-expanding digital commerce regions globally. Industry estimates indicate that the region is growing 1.5 times faster than the global average.
By 2026, e-commerce revenues across Latin America are projected to exceed US$215 billion — equivalent to roughly US$600 million in daily transactions, according to figures cited by MBN.
Within this regional dynamic, Mexico stands out as a principal growth driver. Pierre-Claude Blaise, CEO, AMVO, noted that Mexico’s trajectory mirrors China’s early-stage e-commerce expansion.
“Mexico today resembles where China was a decade ago,” Blaise said. “With China now approaching 50% penetration, the comparison highlights the scale of untapped potential.”
Mexico’s digital economy is currently distributed across three segments:
- Services: 51.3%
- Retail: 29.1%
- Wholesale: 19.6%
The predominance of services — including transportation, real estate, and professional offerings — reflects a structural evolution in which digitalization extends beyond physical goods into intangible transactions. However, category depth remains uneven.
For example, only about half of Mexican online consumers purchase fashion items digitally, suggesting meaningful room for expansion in lifestyle and discretionary segments.
Consumer Behavior and Market Maturity
Consumer behavior in Latin America is characterized by mobile-first engagement and rapid decision cycles. Approximately 85% of digital purchases are completed via smartphone, and nearly two-thirds of buyers finalize transactions within 24 hours of product discovery.
Yet high transaction velocity coexists with limited brand loyalty. A joint study by AMVO and Endeavor found that 50% of consumers would abandon a platform after a single negative experience, underscoring the fragility of digital trust.
Retailers report that customers prioritize operational reliability over advanced personalization tools. Transparent pricing, secure payment processing, and real-time delivery tracking consistently rank above algorithmic recommendations in importance. As Blaise observed, “If the fundamentals fail — stability, payments, logistics — the consumer leaves immediately.”
Logistics and Financial Inclusion as Structural Drivers
Industry leaders increasingly describe e-commerce as fundamentally a logistics ecosystem. Over the past decade, Mexico has significantly expanded its last-mile delivery capacity, with same-day and next-day service now available in more than 25 cities. This evolution has reduced friction in the digital transaction cycle and enhanced consumer confidence.
However, financial inclusion remains a constraint. A sizable portion of the population lacks access to formal banking products, limiting participation in online commerce.
The rise of fintech solutions — including microcredit offerings, digital wallets, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) schemes — is helping bridge this gap, potentially unlocking incremental demand among lower- and middle-income consumers.
Despite progress, structural limitations persist. Official statistics often underrepresent social commerce and transactions conducted on informal digital platforms. Additionally, connectivity disparities in rural and marginalized regions continue to limit nationwide penetration.
The Next Phase: Frequency and Depth
With approximately 85% of internet users in Mexico having made at least one online purchase, user acquisition is no longer the primary growth lever. Instead, the focus is shifting toward increasing purchase frequency and category diversification.
Mexican consumers currently shop online at roughly half the frequency observed in more mature markets. Closing that gap will depend on expanding everyday-use categories — such as groceries and household goods — and strengthening consumer confidence in digital ecosystems.
“We are only halfway through this transformation,” Blaise said. “The next stage will be more integrated, more data-driven, and far more influential in shaping retail and economic productivity.”
Source link: Mexicobusiness.news.
