Emerging Questions Around North Korea’s New Submarine
This photo, released by the Korean Central News Agency on Thursday, displays an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine under construction. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conducted an inspection at the building site, as reported by the news agency. (KCNA-Yonhap)
A significant question is surfacing regarding North Korea’s recent presentation of what it asserts to be an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided-missile submarine. This inquiry revolves around the possible assistance from Russia in providing the naval reactor technology essential for such an advancement.
The submarine, currently under construction and showcased during an on-site inspection by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was reported by state media, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), on Thursday.
Notably, this vessel is considerably larger than the United States Navy’s Virginia-class nuclear attack submarine. According to KCNA, it signifies an “epoch-making” enhancement to the North’s nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Kim reiterated that the ongoing development of this nuclear-armed fleet would function as a “reliable shield” against perceived threats posed by the US-South Korea alliance.
Given the swift timeline and extensive progress claimed by Pyongyang, analysts in Seoul find it difficult to disregard the implications of Russian support.
“North Korea’s nuclear submarine initiative had historically demonstrated minimal visible advancements, but now, an almost completed platform has emerged,” commented Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at the Korea Defense and Security Forum in Seoul. “This strongly indicates the likelihood of Russian collaboration.”
The South Korean military previously cautioned that the deepening military relationships between Russia and North Korea—fueled by Pyongyang’s provision of munitions for Russia’s conflict in Ukraine—could extend to the transfer of naval reactor technology, a maneuver that would drastically impact security in Northeast Asia.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, articulated that the submarine program is part of a broader trend of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
- “North Korea has been developing and test-launching new missile systems based on Russian technologies,” he remarked. “Naval modernization has become a paramount aspect of Kim Jong-un’s strategy to augment nuclear capabilities within the navy.”
- “Even if Russia does not provide a complete reactor, targeted support could expedite submarine deployment and advanced weapon testing,” he added.
However, expert opinions on this matter are not unanimous.
Choi Il, director of the Submarine Research Institute and a retired Navy captain, rebutted the notion that a Russian reactor may have been directly installed.
“Technically, integrating a secondhand Russian reactor into a new North Korean hull is nearly implausible,” he stated. “Politically, Moscow is also not positioned to openly endorse North Korea’s ballistic missile submarine construction.”
Choi further posited that design and construction efforts likely commenced prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, undermining the theory that Pyongyang received a reactor as recompense for wartime support.
Nevertheless, he did not entirely dismiss the prospect of more limited involvement. “Russia may have imparted technical expertise or manpower,” he noted, “but the reactor itself should be regarded as a product of North Korea.”
Despite Pyongyang’s ostensible progress, persistent queries linger regarding the submarine’s readiness for deployment. The vessel has yet to undergo a formal launch ceremony, and independent verification of installed internal combat systems and a functional reactor remains nonexistent.
Choi characterized the submarine’s presentation as more theatrical than indicative of operational readiness. “North Korea remains committed to showcasing its capabilities,” he asserted. “There are no signs that this submarine is close to becoming functional.”
Additional analysts echoed this caution, suggesting that the unveiling might be strategically timed to align with political objectives, such as achieving milestones outlined in Pyongyang’s five-year defense strategy.
I’m Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, emphasized the critical challenge of safely miniaturizing a naval reactor—an expertise that even prominent nuclear navies take decades to master.
“Ensuring reactor stability is the decisive obstacle,” he explained. “The efficacy and scale of Russian assistance will be pivotal in determining when the submarine might truly become operational.”
Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un has denounced South Korea’s own exploration of nuclear-powered submarine capabilities, accusing it of “worsening instability” and pledging to expedite naval nuclear armament in retaliation.
South Korea’s defense entities are sounding alarms regarding Pyongyang’s escalating military collaboration with Moscow, highlighted by the deployment of an estimated 15,000 North Korean troops to Russia since late last year.
Officials in Seoul contend that North Korea may be pursuing Russian assistance in intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarine technology, raising apprehensions that this wartime partnership could directly expedite the North’s strategic weapons programs.
Source link: Koreaherald.com.
