Rising DRAM Prices May Adversely Impact PC Stocks
The escalating costs of consumer-oriented memory chips, specifically dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), are poised to negatively influence the share prices of companies within the personal computer sector, warns Takeshi Kawamoto, a senior equity analyst at Nomura Asset Management UK.
DRAM chips serve as volatile memory for electronic devices, crucial for operating systems and application functionality. Their significance extends beyond personal computers (PCs) to data centers facilitating artificial intelligence (AI) operations.
The top three global DRAM producers—Micron Technology, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix—account for 95% of the world’s DRAM production capacity.
These companies are increasingly pivoting towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, a superior and faster version of DRAM designed for AI applications, sidelining consumer-grade memory production.
Micron, in a notable shift, exited the consumer market in December, ceasing production of DRAM chips for desktops and laptops. Samsung and SK Hynix continue limited production, favoring HBM creation since last November.
“If memory prices stay elevated for the next two to three years, it will be a difficult period for PC-related stocks,” Kawamoto expresses. “Since PC demand is highly sensitive to price, replacement cycles would likely lengthen in that scenario.”
Consequently, consumer-grade memory chip prices surged, with DRAM for computers and devices, such as DDR4, seeing increases of up to 300% from early to late 2025. This surge prompted manufacturers to hike PC and laptop prices, risking potential declines in sales and investor confidence.
Kawamoto anticipates a 5% to 10% reduction in global PC sales this year. Many manufacturers are seeking to mitigate the memory chip crisis by securing long-term contracts with suppliers and concentrating on high-end models, which hold stronger pricing power compared to their lower-end counterparts.
Among the prominent stocks at risk are Dell Technologies Inc., Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Co., and Lenovo Group Ltd.
Anticipated Increases in PC and Laptop Prices
In parallel, Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce has revised its growth forecast for the laptop market in 2026, reducing the projection from a 1.7% increase to a contraction of 5.4%, as detailed in its January report, “Memory Wall Bottleneck: AI Compute Spark Memory Supercycle.”
Tom Hsu, an analyst specializing in computer memory and semiconductors, notes that PC manufacturers are prioritizing supply security and risk diversification over short-term solutions for the consumer-grade memory chip deficit.
Geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and fragmented supply chain policies further exacerbate the situation, keeping costs elevated. Hsu emphasizes that achieving long-term stability in PC markets necessitates geographical diversification and memory recycling.
“While rapid market shifts hinder price predictability beyond 1Q2026, average selling prices are anticipated to trend upward throughout 2026,” he states. “A number of tier-2 PC original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are struggling to secure sufficient DRAM supplies, limiting their shipment forecasts for 2026.”
Chip manufacturers are not ignorant of the supply constraints. SK Hynix and Samsung have unveiled plans to amplify their HBM and DRAM production capacities, with additional facilities planned in South Korea and the U.S. by 2027-2028.
Impact on Smartphone Markets
The ramifications of this shortage extend beyond PCs and into the smartphone sector, where DRAM chips are essential for optimal device performance. This looming deficiency will necessitate consideration from both users and investors alike.
Hsu indicates that DRAM accounts for over 15% of total production costs in both PCs and smartphones, suggesting that supply shortages will influence smartphone production, pricing, and consumer demand.
“We project a 7% year-on-year decline in smartphone production for 2026,” he adds.
However, the impact of this supply deficit on earnings and stock performance will differ by brand. For instance, Samsung is likely to remain relatively unaffected due to its dual role as both a smartphone producer and a manufacturer of the highly sought-after HBM chips.
Conversely, mid- to low-tier Android brands that do not produce memory chips will face significant challenges.
Many are devising strategies to cope with the ongoing shortage by reducing memory specifications in new models. TrendForce anticipates a regression to 4GB RAM in some budget smartphones from the current 8GB by 2026.
For Apple, the surging memory costs may compel a reevaluation of pricing strategies, potentially leading to the cancellation of anticipated discounts for older iPhone iterations.
Budget-conscious brands such as Xiaomi are likely to experience the greatest difficulties. Existing constraints on low-end components hinder further RAM reductions. As a result, these companies may have to pass increased costs onto consumers, adversely affecting sales and competitiveness.
Growth of the Second-Hand PC Parts Market
The ongoing memory shortage has catalyzed a vibrant secondary market for personal computer (PC) components among consumers and enthusiasts. Faced with surging costs, particularly for DRAM, many turn to the second-hand market to upgrade or acquire supplies.
A rising number of Malaysians are exploring platforms such as Carousell and Facebook for affordable memory chips, where a 16GB DDR5 RAM chip typically retails at RM500 to RM900, depending on quality.
In contrast, purchasing the same chip new would incur a cost of RM1,117.65. Just six months prior, in September 2025, the new price was merely RM216.65, according to EMARQUE PC.
“Refurbished DRAM chips and modules have circulated for years, but we are witnessing an intensified supply tightness in refurbished DRAM, as certain consumer products pivot to these sources,” reveals Hsu from TrendForce.
However, accurately gauging real-time sales growth remains elusive due to the tracking mechanisms employed by platforms, which categorize activities broadly rather than specifically for memory chips.
“We observed a nearly 50% increase in average monthly transactions in the Computer Parts category on Carousell Malaysia in late 2025,” states a spokesperson.
This trend is also reflected in increased online activity; Lowyat.net’s secondary market forums show memory chips as one of the most active segments, trailing only full laptops and notebooks.
Yet, the origin of these second-hand chips is noteworthy, with many sellers being high-end consumers cycling out their old components to make way for the latest technology.
Hsu envisions this trend as a sustainable reality, forecasting continued tightness in memory chip supply over the next two to three years.
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