Apple’s Initial Foldable iPhone Encounters Major Challenge: 90% of Japanese Shoppers Decline Interest

Apple’s Foldable Smartphone Launch Faces Consumer Skepticism in Japan

With less than 14 days until the debut of Apple’s inaugural foldable smartphone in Japan, recent survey data indicates the tech titan may encounter substantial resistance in one of its most loyal markets.

Approximately 90% of Japanese consumers have expressed a disinterest in purchasing a foldable device, with concerns about cost and durability cited as primary deterrents.

The insights, released by Nikkei MJ and conducted by market research firm Intage, involved a sample size of 539 individuals across Japan.

A mere 4% of respondents currently utilize a foldable device, while roughly 90% reported that they do not intend to acquire one in the foreseeable future.

The upcoming iPhone Duo is set to launch in Japan on October 23, with an initial price tag of 364,800 yen (around $2,300).

This positioning significantly exceeds that of competitors, as Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy Z Fold 8 starts at 269,880 yen (approximately $1,800), and Google’s Pixel 11 Pro Fold begins at 279,900 yen (approximately $1,800). The price disparity stands at about 83,000 yen more than Samsung’s flagship offering.

Price sensitivity appears to be a decisive issue. In response to queries about their reluctance to purchase foldable phones, 72% of participants highlighted the expense as prohibitive.

Weight and bulkiness were concerns for 39%, while around 40% voiced apprehensions regarding the durability and repair costs associated with foldable models.

The gap between consumer expectations and actual pricing remains pronounced: only 1% of those surveyed deemed Apple’s foldable worth acquiring at the 300,000-yen price point, with about 20% expressing willingness to consider a purchase at the 100,000-yen mark.

Repair expenses contribute significantly to ongoing consumer apprehensions. Foldable devices incorporate complex elements, such as hinge mechanisms that facilitate screen folding, leading to inflated repair costs.

According to Samsung’s official site, replacing the display on a Galaxy Z Fold 8 without a manufacturer’s warranty begins at 87,670 yen (approximately $550), compared to 50,270 yen (about $320) for the Galaxy S26 Ultra. Apple has yet to reveal its repair pricing for the iPhone Duo.

The Nascent Foldable Market

Foldable devices comprise roughly 1% of Japan’s total smartphone market. As reported by market research firm MM Souken, shipments reached 334,000 units in fiscal year 2025, representing 1.1% of all smartphone shipments within the nation.

Samsung Electronics emerged as the leader in this segment, capturing a dominant 67.7% of foldable device shipments, followed by Motorola, Google, and ZTE—the principal brands providing all foldable offerings.

Nevertheless, this research firm anticipates Apple’s entry will more than double the foldable market, forecasting shipments of 760,000 units in fiscal year 2026 and 1.02 million units by fiscal year 2027, which would elevate foldables to 3.6% of Japan’s smartphone shipments.

Industry analysts have remained hopeful that Apple’s entrance into this market would stimulate broader acceptance of foldable devices.

The company has dominated smartphone shipments in Japan for an impressive 15 consecutive years, showcasing formidable brand loyalty.

Yet, the survey results indicate that even Apple’s esteemed reputation may falter against fundamental consumer skepticism regarding the foldable format.

The report highlighted that many consumers perceive traditional smartphones to adequately satisfy their needs.

For the foldable segment to attain significant growth, manufacturers must transcend mere enhancements in screen size; they must innovate unique services and user experiences that validate both the elevated price point and the perceived compromises in durability.

A Crowded Competitive Landscape

Apple is entering an increasingly saturated market. Chinese manufacturers have aggressively targeted the foldable segment.

Richard Yu, a senior executive at Huawei, stated that sales of the company’s Pura X Max surged by 76% following the announcement of the iPhone Duo.

Speaking at an international media conference on September 29, he reported cumulative sales of the device surpassing one million units since its April launch, asserting that Huawei holds a commanding 75% share of China’s foldable market.

Xiaomi’s 18 Fold, unveiled just prior to Apple’s iPhone Duo reveal, parallels the iPhone in terms of a 7.6-inch inner display and 5.4-inch outer screen but offers a lighter design at 219 grams versus the iPhone Duo’s 254 grams.

Priced at 10,999 yuan (approximately $1,640), it currently remains exclusive to the Chinese market. Oppo’s Find N6 adopts a more conventional approach with a sleek design, featuring an 8.12-inch inner display and a closed thickness of just 8.93mm, notably thinner than the iPhone Duo’s 11.3mm. It also boasts a 6,000mAh battery and starts at 9,999 yuan (approximately $1,490).

Meanwhile, Motorola’s Razr Fold, available in US retail channels, features a peak brightness of 6,000 nits on its 8.1-inch inner display—double that of the iPhone Duo at 3,000 nits—alongside a 6,000mAh battery and a triple-camera array, starting at $1,900.

Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8, which launched in August, commences at $1,900, placing it just $100 below the iPhone Duo’s anticipated US starting price.

Adjustments in Production Strategy

In light of the tempered reception in Japan, Apple appears to be pivoting towards anticipated demand in other regions.

Supply chain sources referenced by Securities Times indicate that Apple has recalibrated its production plans for fall 2026, increasing iPhone Duo orders by 30% while slashing iPhone 18 Pro orders by 10% to 15%.

Concurrently, orders for the iPhone 18 Pro Max were augmented by the same margin, maintaining a consistent total for the Pro series. The overall order volume for the iPhone Duo remains below 10 million units.

This strategic production adjustment suggests that Apple envisions sales migrating towards high-value products.

According to Counterpoint Research, projected sales for the iPhone Duo in 2026 are around 6 million units.

Pre-order registrations on JD.com alone surpassed 2.01 million by October 10, although these registrations are free and do not guarantee purchases.

The foldable market, in general, is anticipated to experience substantial expansion. Counterpoint Research anticipates that Apple will secure a 25% share of global foldable shipments by 2026, trailing Samsung’s projected 38% but outpacing Huawei’s expected 22% share.

For Apple, the stakes extend beyond any individual market. The iPhone Duo signifies the company’s most consequential hardware investment since the Apple Watch, with its success poised to influence the future trajectory of the foldable category.

The Japanese survey serves as a preliminary cautionary signal that the road to widespread acceptance remains challenging—even for a corporation that has persistently reshaped consumer expectations.

Key Metrics Summary

Source link: Finance.biggo.com.