Counterpoint Research has projected a 3.3% increase in global smartphone shipments for 2025, largely propelled by Apple’s robust market performance.
- In October, iPhone 17 sales in both China and the U.S. surged by double digits, with Q3 shipments experiencing a 9% year-over-year rise.
- The launch of the new iPhone Air and modifications to memory configurations significantly bolstered adoption rates.
- Samsung is anticipated to retain its position as the world’s second-largest smartphone supplier, facing intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is poised to reclaim its dominance in global smartphone shipments, overtaking Samsung Electronics for the first time in 14 years, and is expected to sustain this leadership through 2029.
According to Counterpoint’s analysis, the anticipated increase in smartphone shipments is underpinned by Apple’s exceptional performance.
Momentum from iPhone 17 Sales
The introduction of the iPhone 17 series has engendered substantial momentum, as noted by Counterpoint. Sales in both China and the U.S. rose by double digits in October, while shipments for the third quarter escalated by 9% year-over-year.
The firm observed that consumers who purchased devices during the COVID-19 boom are now seeking upgrades. The 358 million second-hand iPhones sold globally from 2023 to mid-2025 have created a significant replacement market. Additionally, the new iPhone Air and strategic memory adjustments have enhanced adoption rates.
On Wednesday, Apple’s stock value incrementally advanced by 0.7% during mid-morning trading. Despite this, retail sentiment surrounding the stock on Stocktwits remained in ‘bearish’ territory, characterized by ‘low’ message volume levels.AAPL’s Sentiment Meter and Message Volume as of 11:20 a.m. ET on Nov. 26, 2025 | Source: Stocktwits
Samsung’s Anticipated Performance
In 2025, Samsung is projected to achieve a 5% growth rate, aided by a resilient supply chain and strategic upgrades to its A series. It is expected that emerging markets, particularly India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, will contribute to this growth trajectory.
Nevertheless, the research firm indicated that Samsung is likely to remain the second-largest player in global smartphone shipments, hindered by the mounting competition from Chinese manufacturers and challenges within the mid-range market segment.
With prospective software enhancements and a significant redesign slated for 2027, Apple is strategically positioned to maintain its competitive advantage well into the decade, as noted by the firm.
AAPL stock has increased by over 11% in 2025, reflecting more than an 18% gain over the past year.
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Source link: Stocktwits.com.
