Projected Price Surge for iPhone 18 Pro Raises Concerns
The forthcoming iPhone 18 Pro is anticipated to debut with a starting price of $1,399, representing an increase of approximately $300 over its predecessor, the iPhone 17 Pro, which was priced at $1,099.
This forecast comes from a recent research note by Jeff Pu of GF Securities and marks a notable pivot from his earlier comments in May, where he suggested that Apple might adopt a more competitive pricing strategy despite escalating memory costs.
Pu now forecasts that surging expenses related to the new A20 Pro chip, LPDDR5X memory, and NAND storage are compelling Apple toward a price elevation of $250 to $300 across its Pro series.
The steep rise in memory and storage costs is estimated to be about three times higher than the previous year, primarily influenced not by the demand for iPhones, but by a global surge in AI data center development, which has depleted the essential components that Apple relies on. Under similar circumstances, the iPhone 18 Pro Max could see its price escalate from $1,199 to $1,499.
In February 2026, Pu exhibited an optimistic outlook, asserting that Apple aimed to maintain stable pricing for the iPhone 18 Pro through rigorous cost management.
By May, he still referred to the pricing strategy as “aggressive.” However, a notable reversal occurred following Apple’s June price hikes affecting iPads, Macs, HomePods, Apple TVs, and Vision Pro, sparing iPhone models at that juncture.
Coupled with persistent inflation in DRAM and NAND driven by AI infrastructure demand, Pu has revised AAPL’s rating from “buy” to “hold,” citing “demand uncertainty” should these price increases be implemented.
His latest estimate contrasts with earlier figures provided by IDC, which in June suggested that the iPhone 18 Pro could start at a price between $1,249 and $1,299, while the Pro Max was projected to range from $1,349 to $1,399, indicating more modest increases closer to $200.
The disparity between IDC’s estimates and Pu’s latest assessment illustrates the rapid degradation of the component cost landscape, a trend also reflected in bill of materials projections.
During Apple’s Q3 2026 earnings call on July 31, CEO Tim Cook did not address iPhone pricing directly, though he previously acknowledged that further price hikes are “unavoidable” as Apple grapples with ascending component expenses.
This acknowledgment resonates particularly in light of Pu’s assessment. Apple has already shown a willingness to transfer rising costs to consumers, evident across its non-iPhone hardware. As the iPhone 18 launch looms in September 2026, time is running short to secure alternative solutions.
Anticipations suggest the iPhone 18 Pro will be unveiled alongside Apple’s debut foldable iPhone Ultra, expected to carry a price tag significantly exceeding $2,000.
A $1,399 Pro appears distinctly different when juxtaposed with the $2,000-plus foldable, as opposed to its $1,099 predecessor. This may elucidate why Apple seems poised to anchor that new price point before officially announcing Pro pricing.
If Pu’s projection holds true, this would signify the most substantial single-cycle price increase in the history of the iPhone Pro line, coinciding with existing supply constraints and a deceleration in services growth, which are already exerting pressure on Apple’s upgrade cycle.
Whether Apple chooses to absorb any fraction of this cost escalation or pass it on entirely will likely elucidate the commercial trajectory of demand comparisons for the iPhone 17, which analysts will use to benchmark the actual market performance of the impending iPhone 18 Pro.
Source link: Ithinkdiff.com.
