Air Cargo Volumes Experience Yearly Growth Amidst Evolving Market Dynamics
In January, air cargo volumes saw a notable year-on-year increase of 7%, yet the overall demand may not be as robust as the figures suggest, according to insights from industry analyst Xeneta.
Xeneta attributed January’s demand surge and the cushioning of declining freight rates to the early occurrence of the Lunar New Year. However, this optimism is counterbalanced by the first quarterly decrease in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022.
In fact, the rise in global chargeable weight during the opening month of 2026 represented the most significant growth since January 2025, surpassing the 5% year-on-year capacity expansion.
As volumes increased more rapidly than capacity, the global dynamic load factor nudged upwards by one percentage point, reaching 57%. This dynamic load factor represents a crucial metric of capacity utilization, calculated based on cargo volume and weight alongside available capacity.
Recent pricing trends saw global air cargo spot rates reflect a minimal decline of just -1% year on year, settling at $2.56 per kg in January.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, emphasized that the Lunar New Year significantly skews standard market conditions, with emerging trends indicating a downturn in e-commerce volumes emanating from China and Hong Kong.
“Asia’s dominance in airfreight exports makes it challenging to interpret January’s market signals due to the distortions brought on by the Lunar New Year,” he remarked. “In 2025, festivities commenced on January 28, whereas this year they commence on February 15, meaning that much of January’s strength may be more attributable to the calendar than signifying genuine demand growth.”
He further noted that the landscape for global air cargo spot rates in January may provide a more accurate reflection of prevailing economic conditions rather than actual demand for capacity.
Typically quoted in local currencies, airfreight rates can appear more stable in global averages converted back to dollars due to a weaker dollar. Such dynamics complicate true valuation assessments.
The demand forecast alongside air cargo rates is likely to remain ambiguous until the conclusion of Q1. However, diminishing e-commerce volumes from China and Hong Kong are poised to have a significant impact on airfreight activities.
According to the latest China Customs data for December, low-value and e-commerce exports saw a 9% year-on-year decline—the first such regression since January 2022—following two months of stagnant growth.
This reverses a trend that has buoyed the air cargo industry, buoyed as it has been by cross-border e-commerce since late 2023, a sector that constitutes approximately 20-25% of total annual volumes globally.
In the wake of last year’s expiry of the US de minimis exemption, e-commerce exports from China to the US plummeted over 50% for the third consecutive month in December, with a total annual drop of 28% compared to the previous year.
Although major Chinese e-commerce platforms have been pivoting towards expanding their footprint in the European market to mitigate rising costs affecting US volumes, this shift appears increasingly precarious, as noted by Xeneta.
The growth of e-commerce volumes from China to Europe decelerated to about 8% in December, a steep reduction from the remarkable 54% growth reported in the first eleven months of 2025.
Moreover, excluding Russia, e-commerce sales from China to the broader European market witnessed a 23% year-on-year drop.
“In October, we indicated that e-commerce growth within air cargo was showing signs of potential slowdown, though it could simply be a temporary fluctuation,” van de Wouw recounted.
“We observed similar trends in November and warned that should this pattern continue through December, it would signify a tangible trend. That is now the reality.”
“Any continued stagnation or further decline will undeniably hinder growth trajectories for numerous organizations, particularly those committed to freight conversions reliant on the high e-commerce demand of recent years.”
Regulatory shifts have added tension to e-commerce trade, with US de minimis bans, proposed EU processing fees, and new regulations in Japan and Thailand all posing significant challenges to one of airfreight’s most dependable demand sources, as articulated by Xeneta.
Moreover, a rapid modal shift from air back to ocean transportation remains improbable within Q1 2026, and ongoing uncertainties in Red Sea shipping may contribute to stabilizing airfreight demand amidst declining e-commerce shipments.
Declining Trends in Air Cargo Spot Rates
According to Xeneta, most air cargo spot rates have continued to decline on a year-on-year basis as of January, mirroring broader global market patterns.
The most pronounced decreases were observed in the Southeast Asia to North America and Southeast Asia to Europe corridors, where spot rates plummeted by over 10% year on year due to ongoing capacity expansions.
Both corridors also saw month-on-month declines between 10% and 16%, reflecting their susceptibility to seasonal demand fluctuations.
Meanwhile, the Northeast Asia to Europe corridor experienced the third-largest yearly decline, dropping 6% in January, indicative of supply growth surpassing demand, likely exacerbated by faltering cross-border e-commerce growth.
Conversely, the Northeast Asia to North America route only saw a modest 3% year-on-year decline, primarily due to the strategic removal of freighter capacity.
As with the Southeast Asia outbound routes, both Northeast Asia corridors also encountered nearly 20% month-on-month downturns as the market transitioned into the traditionally quieter period.
Spot rates are anticipated to experience an uptick ahead of the Lunar New Year in mid-February, although indications of a pre-Lunar New Year rush remain scarce.
Interestingly, in the Transatlantic westward corridor, spot rates unexpectedly increased by 3% year on year, even amidst a 4% year-on-year reduction in chargeable weight.
This divergence may reflect the recent US tariff threat—a proposed additional 10% on imports from eight European nations—prior to its retraction on January 21. It exemplifies the sensitivity and responsiveness of shippers as they strive to safeguard margins.
The withdrawal of the tariff threat appears to have led to a temporary demand spike; during the week ending January 25, volumes experienced a 16% week-on-week increase during a timeframe generally characterized by modest growth.
Nonetheless, the subsequent weakness of the dollar, which renders EUR-priced air freight more expensive, may play a more significant role in the observed rate strengthening. Source: Xeneta
Source link: Aircargonews.net.
