Global Air Cargo Sees Moderate Growth Amid Market Fluctuations
In November, global air cargo witnessed a notable demand increase of five percent year-on-year (YoY). However, as indicated by Xeneta’s latest market analysis, the vibrant e-commerce surge that has dominated the past two years is beginning to lose its momentum.
Demand and Rate Overview
Despite an uplifting demand increase in November, e-commerce growth appears to be decelerating. Spot rates, a crucial metric in determining market dynamics, experienced a five percent drop YoY as carriers aggressively sought to capture market share. Annual declines were reported across all primary corridors.
- EU de-minimis reforms are anticipated to reshape e-commerce flows starting in 2026.
- The industry, while projected to post a four percent expansion in 2025, braces for a more challenging forecast in 2026.
The promising results in November followed unexpected growth in the preceding months—three percent in September and four percent in October—contributing to a positive trajectory before a predicted tougher year ahead.
Capacity and Pricing Trends
Capacity growth in November remained commensurate with demand; however, supply throughout the year was unable to keep up with surging volumes. Notably, global cargo spot rates have not seen significant alleviation. In November, rates fell to $2.73 per kg, representing a sharper decline than the three percent observed in October.
In an effort to garner market share, carriers are reportedly compromising on pricing discipline, which exerts downward pressure on yields within a market already characterized by sluggishness. Month-on-month (MoM), spot rates exhibited a six percent rise, albeit inferior to last year’s nine percent increase.
Regional Insights
All major corridors reported reductions in YoY spot rates. The Europe–North America corridor experienced its first annual decline at eight percent, although it did see a twenty-seven percent MoM increase, a stark contrast to the forty-two percent surge from the prior year as freighter capacity shifted to e-commerce lanes.
- Northeast Asia maintained relative resilience with carriers reallocating capacity between transpacific and Asia–Europe routes, yielding only minor annual declines.
- Southeast Asia faced substantial rate declines in both North America and Europe, compounded by surging capacity and softer volumes.
Market performance has unexpectedly surpassed earlier projections, aided by traditional shippers adhering to annual shipping cycles and enhanced clarity regarding US trade tariffs. Yet, regulatory changes loom on the horizon for 2026.
Tariff Impacts and Future Projections
Insights reveal a nuanced view of US tariff implementations, with the global average hovering around 10-12 percent rather than the extreme figures previously posited. While the consequences manifest in the airfreight sector, they are not yet inflicting severe damage on consumer demand.
According to Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer of Xeneta, “As inventory replenishment approaches, we anticipate increased tariff repercussions on air cargo volumes in the coming year.”
China’s cross-border e-commerce trends add a layer of complexity to the global air cargo landscape. After an impressive span of twenty-seven months exhibiting nearly forty percent annual growth, recent data indicates stagnation in total sales, particularly marked by a three percent downturn to other Asian regions and a concerning fifty-one percent decline in volumes to the US against a backdrop of new de-minimis restrictions.
Future Outlook
As the EU prepares to implement accelerated de-minimis reforms to confront undervaluation issues in low-value consignments, projections for 2026 estimate only modest, low single-digit growth in demand amidst increasingly challenging market conditions.
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