Growing Focus on Asia Pacific for E-Commerce Air Cargo
The Asia Pacific region is increasingly becoming a pivotal hub for e-commerce air cargo, particularly in light of recent tariff modifications and the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ exemption affecting trade between China and the United States.
This assertion emerges from a groundbreaking white paper released this week by the International Air Cargo Association (TIACA).
Since April, changes in US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption for goods traded between China and the US—implemented in early May—have resulted in a notable downturn in cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to the United States.
Post-exemption, a 17% decline in volumes was recorded, although a brief resurgence followed frontloading initiatives in anticipation of a 90-day reprieve from tariffs, as noted in TIACA’s inaugural white paper dedicated solely to the e-commerce sector.
Conversely, cargo volumes from other origins within the Asia Pacific to the US—and from Asia Pacific as a whole to Europe—are rebounding more robustly, indicating a potential redistribution of e-commerce trade flows away from China and Hong Kong, as delineated in the white paper entitled ‘E-Commerce: Opportunities & Challenges.’
The document highlights that e-commerce demand along the transpacific trade route has seen substantial growth since 2021. Projections for 2024 suggest that up to 50% of transpacific air cargo demand will be attributed to e-commerce.
Moreover, this burgeoning demand appears to be encroaching upon traditional cargo, with research indicating that approximately 25% of China-US air cargo could be jeopardized by the recent modifications to de minimis regulations.
The cessation of de minimis exemptions on May 2 rendered the e-commerce business models employed by major companies, such as TEMU and Shein, increasingly untenable.
It is telling that capacity on this trade lane decreased by 30%, underscoring the interdependence between e-commerce and freight capacity.
Delving into China’s burgeoning e-commerce landscape, the white paper reveals that e-commerce activities originating from mainland China and Hong Kong have experienced double-digit growth since 2019.
Central to this expansion are regions in southeastern China—specifically Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Xiamen—which have seen their market nearly double compared to 2019 levels.
Additionally, in 2024, volumes from the central and western regions of China—such as Zhengzhou, Ezhou, Chongqing, and Chengdu—have surged by nearly one-third from 2019.
Hong Kong, the largest origin point within China, has also reported a significant increase in 2024, climbing 9% versus 2019 figures.
In 2024, e-commerce from China is poised to reach 4.4 million tonnes, reflecting an annual growth rate of 38% since 2021.
E-commerce volumes have nearly doubled over the past two years, with low-value e-commerce constituting 55% of China-US air trade volumes.
Potential Doubling of E-Commerce Volumes
According to the white paper, e-commerce air cargo volumes have the potential to double over the next decade. By the end of 2024, e-commerce is projected to represent roughly 20% of global air cargo volumes, with forecasts indicating that these numbers could double within the next ten years.
This meteoric rise, largely driven by shifts in consumer behavior attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, has transformed supply chains, engendered new business models, and exposed regulatory, standardization, and infrastructural deficiencies.
Over the past five years, e-commerce volumes have steadily increased, with industry estimates currently placing them at over 12 million metric tonnes.
Developed by TIACA’s E-Commerce Task Force—encompassing a diversified group of stakeholders including airlines, airports, ground handlers, technology providers, freight forwarders, and industry analysts—the white paper explores critical challenges and opportunities.
Key focal areas include safety, customs management, harmonized data standards, sustainability, and innovation.
“E-commerce represents more than just a new cargo product; it signifies a paradigm shift in the operational dynamics of the air logistics sector,” stated Steven Polmans, chair of TIACA.
“This white paper offers actionable policy recommendations and best practices, functioning as a collaborative roadmap for our global community to effectively prepare for the forthcoming growth phase.”
Nikolai Schaffner, Swissport co-chair of TIACA’s E-Commerce Task Force, commented: “Our industry stands at a pivotal juncture.
By embracing digitalization, innovation, and collaborative efforts across sectors, we can evolve e-commerce air logistics into a more secure, eco-friendly, and efficient ecosystem.”
Glyn Hughes, TIACA’s Director General, remarked: “This white paper is an essential step in guiding our industry through the swift ascendance of e-commerce. My gratitude extends to our E-Commerce Task Force for their expertise and diligence, as well as to the Board for prioritizing this vital initiative.
Together, we are forging a path toward safer, smarter, and more sustainable e-commerce air logistics, taking into account shifting regulations and consumer behaviors.”
Source link: Aircargonews.net.
