Retail Crime Shifts to Digital Platforms, NRF Report Reveals
Retail crime is increasingly transitioning to online environments, as elucidated in a recent report published by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Analysts have observed a troubling surge in phone scams and digital fraud among prominent retailers. Concerns regarding theft associated with gift cards and return policies continue to persist.
Notably, the NRF has opted not to disclose specific estimates for losses arising from theft or fraud among surveyed entities, having ceased its annual shrink report starting in 2024.
This decision follows the group’s retraction of prior assertions that organized retail crime inflicted losses amounting to tens of billions of dollars, which were subsequently shown to be grounded in erroneous data.
Earlier this year, numerous major retailers reported an increase in shrinkage; however, they later indicated a reduction in these issues, with some reaching levels reminiscent of pre-pandemic times.
Experts specializing in loss prevention now articulate that the determinants of shrink extend beyond simplistic criminal activity.
While organized retail crime remains a formidable concern, the recent report emphasizes that the challenges are more intricate than mere shoplifting.
Issues such as vulnerabilities within the supply chain, including cargo theft, and targeted phone fraud aimed at store staff are also highlighted.
The U.S. House of Representatives has recently enacted legislation to combat organized retail crime, underscoring the ongoing advocacy efforts by the NRF.
Intriguingly, incidents of shoplifting appear to be stabilizing. The NRF indicates a significant decline in the average frequency of shoplifting and merchandise theft incidents, marking the first reduction seen in several years.
This downward trend is credited to increased investments in technology, employee training, and strategic measures designed to bolster store security and equip personnel to prevent and mitigate theft-related incidents.
In contrast, other studies present a divergent narrative, suggesting that shoplifting is escalating in various large U.S. cities.
Data amassed during the initial six months of 2026 revealed that reported shoplifting incidents in 36 major urban centers rose by 4% compared to the corresponding timeframe in 2025, reflecting a 5% increase relative to figures from 2019.
This research utilizes monthly incident-level data sourced from police department online platforms, covering the period from January 2018 to June 2026.
For the NRF’s recent report, senior executives focused on loss prevention and security from the retail sector were surveyed between February and April 2026.
Insights were compiled from 66 retailers, collectively representing 143 brands across a spectrum of retail categories, illuminating contemporary challenges and evolving dynamics in retail security.
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